Key Highlights

• The Aussie Dollar is positioned nicely above the 0.7900 handle area against the US Dollar.
• There is a crucial ascending channel with current support at 0.7950 forming on the 4 hours chart of AUD/USD.
• Australia’s trade balance in July 2017 posted a surplus of 460M, less than the forecast of 875M.
• Australian’s Retail Sales in July 2017 posted no change compared with the forecast of +0.3% (MoM).

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar started a major upside move from the 0.7807 low against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair is positioned well in the bullish zone and remains supported near 0.7950.

Looking at the 4 hours chart, there is a crucial ascending channel forming with current support at 0.7950. Both 100 and 200 simple moving averages (H4) are also below the channel support at 0.7930.

Therefore, any major dips from the current levels are likely to find support near 0.7950 0.7930. In the short term, there is a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 0.8020.

The pair recently tested the 1.236 Fibonacci extension of the last decline from the 0.7995 high to 0.7871 low. It suggests that the pair might attempt a downside correction before moving back above 0.8000 in the near term.

The overall trend seems to be bullish as long as the pair is trading above 0.7950 0.7930.

Australia’s Trade Balance and Retail Sales

Today, Australia saw a couple of important economic releases like the trade balance and retail sales (July 2017). The trade balance in July 2017 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics was forecasted to post a surplus of 875M.

However, the actual result was on the lower side, as the trade surplus was 460M. It was also less compared with the last 856M. Exports of goods and services in July 2017 declined 2%, more than the last 1%. Imports of goods and services in July 2017 declined 1%, compared with the last increase of 2%.

The report added that:

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $709m (2%) to $31,071m. Non rural goods fell $631m (3%), non monetary gold fell $330m (17%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $4m (15%). Rural goods rose $97m (2%). Services credits rose $159m (3%).

Moreover, the Retails Sales figures for July 2017 were also published today. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.3% in sales compared with the previous month. The actual was disappointing, as there was no change in sales (0%).

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• ECB Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference.
• US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 241K, versus 236K previous.
• Canada’s Ivey PMI August 2017 – Forecast 61.3, versus 60.0 previous.