Key Highlights

• The Euro stayed above the 1.1650 support against the US Dollar, but failed near 1.1770 1.1780.
• There are two important bearish trend lines with resistance near 1.1770 and 1.1780 forming on the 4 hours chart of EUR/USD.
• Greece current account for June 2017 posted a trade surplus of €0.842B, better than the last € 0.582B.
• Today, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for July 2017 will be released, which is forecasted to decline from 0.13 to 0.10.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained elevated this past week above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. However, buyers are finding it hard to take EUR/USD above a major resistance near 1.1770 1.1780.

Looking at the 4 hours chart, there are two important bearish trend lines forming with resistance near 1.1770 and 1.1780. The 100 simple moving average (H4) and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 1.1847 high to 1.1662 low are also around 1.1780.

As long as there is no close above the 100 SMA (H4) and 1.1780, the pair might struggle in the near term. A proper break could easily take the pair above 1.1800 towards 1.1850.

On the downside, there are two key supports at 1.1680 and 1.1660. These might continue to hold losses in EUR/USD below 1.1650.

To sum up, the pair is trading below a major support at 1.1650 and crucial resistance at 1.1780. Eventually, it may break either support or resistance for the next move.

Greece Current Account

Recently in the Euro Zone, Greece’s current account report for June 2017 was released by the Bank of Greece. The market was looking for a minor trade surplus compared with the same month a year ago.

The actual result was in line with the forecast, as there was a trade surplus of €0.842B, better than the last € 0.582B.

The report pointed out that:

A year on year rise of €137 million in the deficit of the balance of goods was mostly attributable to an increase in the deficit of the non oil balance of goods. It should be noted that non oil exports of goods rose by 15.3% and oil exports by 17.5% at constant prices.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair may decline a few pips in the short term, but 1.1660 support might prevent losses.