EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected the Fed kept the rate unchanged (<1.25%) and announced that they will begin balance sheet reduction in October, which was perceived as hawkish by market participants. As a result, the pair tumbled through several support levels, on the back of US Dollar momentum.

Technical Outlook

Newfound US Dollar strength took the pair below 1.1900 after a near touch of 1.2040 earlier in the session and the momentum is likely to extend throughout today’s session, so we expect at least a touch of the support located at 1.1840. However, it must be noted that sharp moves tend to retrace a little after the initial momentum wanes, so we may see a move up that will find resistance around 1.1900. Despite the recent move, the pair is not in a downtrend so we cannot rule out a stronger move to the upside.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt. The impact if the speech is uncertain and will depend on Draghi’s attitude but caution is recommended whenever heads of central banks speak publicly. The event is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT.

The most notable event for the US Dollar will be the release of the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows how many persons have asked for unemployment related benefits but it’s a weekly release and this means that it has a rather low impact. However, higher numbers than the expected 302K usually weaken the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from much better than anticipated Retail Sales numbers early in yesterday’s session and the pair jumped higher. However, US Dollar strength generated by the Fed meeting erased al gains and took the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

After a short lived break of 1.3616 resistance, the pair dropped to touch 1.3450 but at least at the time of writing, the level was not breached. If a break occurs, the drop will probably extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once that mark is hit, we expect to see moves north, based on the fact that the pair is still in a strong uptrend. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would show increased bearish pressure and would weaken the uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so price direction will be determined by the technical aspect but also by the effects of yesterday’s events.